The Russian Central Bank has gradually reduces the dollar on the foreign exchange market intervention. This means that support for the ruble exchange rate will be over soon and the prices of foreign currencies will be used again at a gallop
Despite attempts to curb the Central Bank exchange rate fluctuations in the "acceptable corridor", the value of the currency basket is chosen more confident to the upper boundary of the price set by the Central Bank. Experts believe that in the next month and a half dollar and the euro can easily pierce the ceiling, and the ruble, respectively, roll down - to the delight of the Ministry of Finance, and unfortunately for the Russians.
- We must understand that because of the oil desheveyuschey Russian budget for a long time loses money. And so the weaker ruble - benefit from the economy and government - says Anna Bodrov, the analyst "Investkafe." - So then in the plans of the Central Bank - after release of national currencies in the "free floating", ie to stop measures to contain rates.
And let them roll ...
Judging by the actions of the Central Bank in the currency market, the Russian regulator is really losing interest in supporting the ruble. So, on Tuesday, June 5 The Central Bank bought up as much as 6.76 billion rubles., Thus creating artificial demand and by the environment, allowing the ruble to add almost 74 kopecks against the euro and 83 kopecks. dollar. But on Wednesday, the volume of interventions amounted to 5.97 billion rubles. - Almost a billion rubles less - and by Thursday the dollar lost 41 kopecks., Euro - almost 56 kopecks. And finally, on Thursday, the Central Bank bought the entire 2.28 billion rubles., Then on Friday the ruble has grown slightly, and on Saturday the 9th again began to fall. Recent auctions have closed on the values of 40.79 rubles. for the euro and 32.58 rubles. the U.S. dollar.
The "delight" at the exchange rates of this and next week, do not take anyone's guess, even by experts.
- Foreign exchange and stock markets in the short term has long been divorced from the real economy, and trends in those markets create large speculators, rather than macro-economic processes, - analyst IK "TRADE PORTAL" Alexey Rybakov.
Therefore, waiting for news from Greece (which has traditionally been accused of currency fluctuations, both Russian and Western politicians), or follow the U.S. election campaign - is useless and even dangerous, warn economists.
- I want to warn all natural persons from spontaneous trips to the exchange offices and banks: the spontaneous actions are most often based on emotions and bring only losses - Managing Director, said "TRADE PORTAL" Paul Filippenkov. - The Russian ruble is highly dependent on oil prices, and this is one factor that we are unable to control - it's sort of an external variable. Although logic and is extremely simple: high oil prices - expensive ruble, and vice versa, cheap oil - a cheap ruble.
- At the moment, if we take into account fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, no serious "perekroek" principle should not take the savings, the recommendation is relevant to the majority of Russians, whose savings rate is not the hundreds of thousands of rubles - agrees Bodrov. In the metal, rather than in paper
For large purchases that you have planned for late summer or early fall (auto, furniture, household appliances), it may be worth Prestressing and make them now - in fact already in mid-July, the ruble could continue to fall sharply, which means that all the goods of foreign production or with foreign components considerably more expensive.
- But unplanned purchases - in order to "invest" in something tangible Dollars - should not do, for example, buy washing machines, or quickly take out a loan on the car, which until then was you do not need - said Filippenko. - Happiness does not bring such purchases, cash prize - even more so.
As noted by Bodrov, in the middle or end of the summer season there are always deals from tour operators, special promotions, sales and other one-time offers from retailers. That they should pay attention to - within reason - but in any case not to throw everything out of considerations of "if only to grab until you become more expensive."
- If there is a desire to invest in something, you should pay attention to the OMC - unallocated metal accounts - or ruble deposits for which the rates so far look attractive - recommends Bodrov.
According Filippenkova, one of the most attractive way to save the ruble savings is "a very long mortgage, 20 years old and above."
- Payments for it in 5-7 years will be substantially eaten by inflation, ie, you get a loan with a very noticeable discount, - says Filippenko. - But this option is unfortunately not available to all. It requires quite a large savings. A majority of Russians will approach the breakdown of savings into three parts: one - ruble (it's spending money), one - dollar, and one - in euros. This is a standard strategy for all situations. Do not get, kill
If you want to "beat" inflation, says expert here can help only invest in securities.
- But there are already very different risks, and to go without professional training and robust monetary base is not necessary. In general, it is absolutely safe savings strategies simply do not - that's a modern financial system - concludes Filippenkov.
- If you are afraid of sharp fluctuations in exchange rate, do not make any hasty "sudden movements" - adds Bodrov. - The conversion of a particular currency, you can lose more than save money.
A similar view is held by well-known economist and journalist, Mikhail Khazin, in his words, "value for money - but still such that they can not lose - it's great art. This is an issue that requires careful analysis of the identity of the investor and the long discussions. "
- If you decide to engage in investment, you need not just any book for "Dummies" and an investment adviser. He - as a family doctor. Because you have to look for ways to invest money, the most comfortable and understandable for you personally - said Hazin during an online conference on AIF.RU.
The only more or less affordable and, most importantly, reliable way to invest your Dollars Economist says invest in precious metals, specifically - in gold.
- If you want to make an investment for 20 years and nothing to worry about, it is better to buy gold, although some time ago we saw a sharp rise and then an equally sharp fall in gold prices, my opinion is that it is still historically will rise - said Khazin. - In 2002, the year it was obvious that gold will replace the dollar on the positions of the measure of value in the world - and this is the main factor of its stable growth. Look 10 years ago, the price of gold was very low, but has since grown to 7-8 times.
But this investment should be long-term,
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less than 3-4 years does not make sense to hide their money in gold bullion, he said.
The main thing now - do not indulge in the "apartment" and did not venture to buy the first available living space in the hope of saving savings from inflation and devaluation.
- Yes, real estate investments - one more way to "invest the money and not think about them 20 years", - says Khazin - but first, you will need to rent this apartment - and it is not an easy job, and secondly , it is unknown whether as a result of this benefit, because for those 20 years, the situation in the market can change dramatically. For example, in some European cities for certain types of real estate taxes are imposed, and fees for housing services, the costs of maintaining the apartment begin to exceed the rental income. In Russia, too, can fall into this trap.
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