Who rules the oil?

6 factors that affect the energotseny

The rapid fall of the ruble, what happened in the last few days, usually at least explain the rapid reduction in price of oil. And it's true. Although the weakening of the national currency, of course, influenced by other factors. For example, capital flight and the desire of the authorities to plug holes in the budget of depreciating rubles. Therefore it is necessary to understand how long will fall neftetseny. As found "EV", four factors are working on cheap oil. And only two - on the road.

"Oil" bears

More recently - in February and March - oil brand Brent, which is considered by the Russian Urals, at times off scale at $ 126/barrel. Now the question is, at best, about $ 96-97. That is, the drop was more than 20%. What will happen next? Unfortunately, in the foreseeable future, oil prices will likely continue to fall in price. Why not? In this direction, operates at least four factors.

The first is well known: the debt crisis on the southern flank of the eurozone. The situation is exacerbated by the recession. And once production falls, then decreases, and energy consumption. So, oil will inevitably fall in price. According to the calculations of various kinds of experts, the almost unavoidable way out of Greece, the eurozone will lead to a drop in its GDP for at least 3-5%. Accordingly, the oil is once again cheaper.

Moreover, the competitiveness of European economy, with the exception of German, is reduced. What do the data on the external deficit. Again this is against the increase in oil consumption.

The second factor that plays against the oil is less known but no less dangerous. In recent years has been steadily slowing rate of growth of developing economies, especially China. In May, the industrial index of this country (just over 50%) suggests that the Celestial Empire is on the verge of stopping the growth of its GDP. So, there will be less to consume oil.

There is, according to many analysts, and a third, purely political factor - the U.S. presidential election in November this year. Barack Obama would be beneficial to come to this date with the most low domestic prices for gasoline. And the opportunities for the U.S. government to manipulate them quite a lot. First of all, through the completion of the strategic or expenditure nefterezervov. However, political factors will never lie on the surface. And they can not always play properly. Then how would do no harm.

But the U.S. has long been brewing fourth factor, which plays a strategic level against the increase in oil prices. In America, brought up to industrial scale technology for extracting oil from shale formations. Gas there has already been successfully produced for several years. Due to this back in 2009, the U.S. came in first place in the world gas production (as a matter asserted "Gazprom" otherwise). Now it's shale oil, which is a dime a dozen overseas. Of course, it is still "dirty" technology often leads to contamination of groundwater by hydrogen sulfide. But the technology in place is not worth it.

"Oil" bulls

Hope still springs eternal. July 1 to fully enter into force an embargo on oil supplies from Iran to the EU. It is approximately 15% of the world's supply. All other things being equal, this should, in principle, to stop the decline in oil prices due to the lack of energy.

Is still another factor in favor of the return neftetsen to at least $ 100 a barrel - to overcome the crisis, or at least blunt the crisis in the eurozone. Which inevitably

 
increase the demand for all types of energy.

But both of these factors, especially the latter, is in serious doubt. The embargo does not cover all consumers of Iranian oil. So the result will be a stabilizing obviously not very noticeable.

In these circumstances, the "health" of the ruble ever will depend on the correct actions of the authorities. In particular, the sound fiscal policy. However, until the government runs the risk of counting in May on the initiative of the Ministry of Finance Budget 2012 to the base of the average price of $ 100 per barrel to $ 115. The latter is clearly this year will be gone. However, the Finance Ministry proposed to the government since the 2013 budget dramatically reduce the average price of oil. For a variety of formulas that differ from year to year, the budget will be laid approximately $ 82 per barrel. Accordingly, it is necessary to cut costs. Then the ruble will not be so hard to dive down.